Tuesday, January 08, 2008

The Primary

I have a friend who's in New Hampshire helping the Obama campaign. He drove up there from Brooklyn two days after the Iowa caucus. His words on the phone today were, "I can pretty much tell you that Hillary is going to get slaughtered." It seems likely that New Hampshire will have a record turnout, which is not surprising: The most clear aspect to the Obama momentum is that people want to vote for him. I'm not really old enough to remember a time when -- even for a few days, but hopefully longer -- there was a palpable sense that people weren't just choosing "the lesser of two/three/four/five evils" in a presidential race. It's too early to say this, but I will anyway, and I'll back it up with a longer analysis if and when Obama secures the nomination...Apathy is not just an organic phenomenon. It's often a response to the options presented.

While we wait to see the results tonight, please see Gloria Steinem spewing nonsense in the New York Times today. The headline of her op-ed ("Women Are Never Front-Runners") is patently false. Hillary was a substantial front-runner entering primary season. The reason she's not anymore is not due to her gender; it's due to her own weaknesses as a candidate and her opponent's strengths. I would parse her column at greater length -- there's literally a counterpoint to be made to every paragraph -- but I'm too busy.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Err, ... uhh, ... maybe "slaughtered" isn't the best word.

Obviously, most people had NH wrong (although the polls leading up to the primary seemed to give Hillary an edge). But keep in mind that 60% of registered NH voters apparently turned out for the primary, ... which totals about 500,000 people (280,000 voted Dem).

The only states that have voted so far are Iowa, Wyoming, and New Hampshire. The only reason we're paying any attention to those states is the horse race aspect, which the media inevitably plays up but has always driven me crazy. Winning New Hampshire doesn't reflect national consensus any more than beating the Tampa Bay D-Rays reflects winning the World Series.

-- MattM

11:28 AM  

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