Monday, March 05, 2007

Irrational About Indiana

Gloriously, it's almost time to fill out the brackets. Will Leitch of Deadspin had a piece in yesterday's New York Times about NCAA tournament pools. It includes this funny/probably useful tip on how to pick the winners, which includes the latest subtitle for this blog, seen above:
Stop watching games. The worst handicapper is one with a human bias. And the most prevalent bias is the fallacy that having watched a team all season confers an advantage. If you’ve been following Indiana all year, you are no longer rational about Indiana — or any of its opponents. And you can’t dispassionately rank Indiana against teams you haven’t seen, either. The trick: ignore basketball altogether. “The best handicappers are people who don’t watch games at all,” Carlin says. “The brain is one of the least effective predictive machines we have.”


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I won a pool for last year's tournament by taking the 9-seed favorites and flipping a coin for everyone else.

11:23 AM  

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